Griffin Guide: AZMagicPlayers.com 2014 Legacy Series Metagame Analysis

Forward: I write this not as an authority on Magic or Legacy, but as a student of the format sharing what I’ve experienced.  I welcome all constructive comments!

The aim of this article is to explore options in tackling our local metagame, adapting to said metagame, and tuning a deck organically throughout the season. I’ll operate under the notion that most players will NOT be capable of switching decks entirely.  Many can, but also many cannot (card availability or price for instance).

Rewind a couple months; 57 Legacy players sleeved up their 75 for what was the beginning of the AZMagicPlayers.com 2014 Legacy Series.  I will consider this point the genesis of my look into our local Legacy metagame.  While there are weekly events at stores throughout the valley, this was a large gathering (for Legacy), bringing folks from Tucson, Prescott, and Flagstaff. Perhaps it’s more accurate looking at it as the beginning of this “season.”  There it is.

I played Miracles, and after much consternation, settled on my 75 around 2am the night before. (Spoiler, I was still way off target!)

Creatures (1)
Vendilion Clique

Spells (37)
Brainstorm
Swords to Plowshares
Sensei's Divining Top
Pithing Needle
Spell Pierce
Enlightened Tutor
Counterbalance
Rest in Peace
Counterspell
Entreat the Angels
Detention Sphere
Jace, the Mind Sculptor
Misdirection
Force of Will
Terminus
Engineered Explosives

Lands (22)
Arid Mesa
Flooded Strand
Scalding Tarn
Karakas
Island
Plains
Volcanic Island
Tundra
Sideboard (15)
Rest in Peace
Helm of Obedience
Blood Moon
Energy Field
Tormod's Crypt
Surgical Extraction
Sulfur Elemental
Pyroblast
Red Elemental Blast
Pyroclasm
Swan Song
Terminus
Meddling Mage

In short, my Miracles list had a maindeck Enlightened Tutor package.  I had spent a month trying to force Esper Miracles to work (not all ideas are winners, but it was FUN) and had been abusing Lim-Dul’s Vault to stitch together combo pieces to steal games out of nowhere. Transitioning back to UWr, I still wanted Enlightened Tutor shenanigans. Maindeck Pithing Needle. Rest in Peace. Detention Sphere. Engineered Explosives.  Turns out that while it seemed ok in numerous occasions to tutor out precise answers to given board states, the eventual card disadvantage of losing draw steps caught up with me in the February event.

On the day, the deck vanquished 2 Merfolks, 1 Death and Taxes, 1 Punishing Maverick, 1 OmniTell, and 1 Elves and suffered losses to BUG Delver in Swiss and Death and Taxes in the Semis. I did well, and felt as though I faced more than my share of fair decks.  If anything was learned, there were a lot of people pushing critters into the red zone. My personal take was that decks NEED to be able to fend off fair decks (or outmaneuver fellow fair decks) and still have a way to stop combos like OmniTell or Sneak and Show.  Depending on the deck, one’s plan to combat Elves either considers it fair or combo.

From my side of the table, Elves is an aggro deck, and various Blade builds are aggro decks.  I’m so far on the extreme end of the Aggro/Control spectrum that rapid-firing Termini (Terminuses?) is usually a my plan.  With that perspective, it makes me the control deck in practically every matchup (your mileage may/will vary, as I’m sure the Blade decks and perhaps even BUG go “control” vs a number of opposing fair plans).
In that light and broad strokes, our meta looked like:*

  • 56% Fair (32/57 decks) (Red zone for life!)
  • 28% Lethal Combo (16/57) (Literally game-over combos.  20 damage, mill out, etc.)
  • 14% Giant Dude (8/57) (Sneaking big guys into play, or reanimating them)
  • 2% Control (1/57) (so don’t metagame against me! Hah!)

*I’m sure I’ve counted a deck as Fair when it perhaps fits more control, etc, but the ratios are stark enough to draw some conclusions!

Roughly half of the field was fair, and a quarter was combo.  Decks that sneaked big critters into play were the least of my worries; instant speed Terminus was my silver bullet.  I felt fairly comfortable with 4 Terminus, 2 Swords to Plowshares, Engineered Explosives, Detention Sphere, and Pyroclasm in my 75.  I also had Misdirection, Swan Song, Red/Pyroblasts, Counterspell,  and Force of Wills for the various combo-deck-counter-fights.  A few tweaks were made in preparation for February’s event, mostly in moving the 4th Terminus from side to main (swapping with Misdirection).

February’s tournament rolled around, and gave us a second dataset to use.  It’s sure nice to have multiple meta-breakdowns in order to analyze for trends.  36 players tuned in to do battle.
Broad strokes picture, Part 2:

  • 56% Fair (20/36) (Percentage-wise, no change!)
  • 22% Giant Dude (8/36) (up 8%, but same # of players)
  • 19% Lethal Combo (7/36) (down 9%)
  • 3% Control (1/36) (up 1%, still just me, and I tanked this time)

Some interesting things to look at:
Deathblade variants dropped from 7 players in January to 3 in February.  (12% to 8% of the field)
Death and Taxes (4 up to 5) and Blue Zoo (making a debut) were the only fair decks to increase in quantity.  DnT rose from 7% to 14% of the field.
Merfolk (3 down to 0) and Infect (1 down to 0) disappeared.
Belcher (1 down to 0), Burn (3 down to 0), and Storm (1 down to 0) vanished as well.
The percentage of players comboing for the win vs. sneaking a giant guy into play has started to even out.
Still no RUG Delver.

I was a bit disappointed in my results for this event, and took some time re-evaluating my card choices.  I began playing 1 Ponder for an extra cantrip (-1 Spell Pierce), took out the 3rd Entreat the Angels (I seemed to be doomed to drawing turn 1 and 2 Entreats before having enough mana to utilize them), and evaluated the Tutor package vs. card disadvantage I seem to cultivate (Tutors & Force of Will? Ouch!)

Shortly afterwards, GP Paris proclaimed Miracles to be a great Legacy deck, launching (barely) 3 Miracles pilots into top 8.  I felt like I was “getting closer” to a better build when I saw all 3 running 2 Ponder, 2 Entreats main, and Tutor sideboards.  I examined what was different, and Snapcaster Mage was a card I had regretfully not been playing.  I noted one list boasted 2 main deck Red/Pyro blasts.  Another had Spell Pierce AND Spell Snare.  All of them had more Jace, the Heartbreakers than I ran.  (Time to get an extra Jace…).  The Paris list running Snapcaster Mages allowed for much better control of those critical early turns.  Turn 3, flash in Tiago, re-buy Swords or Ponder or even Brainstorm?  I’m in.

I tested with the maindeck REB for about 2 weeks, finding it great when it mattered, but often shuffling it the top vs DnT, Elves, Goblins, Affinity, Infect, etc.  I returned to the drawing board, inspired by Maxime Gilles, Philipp Schonegger, and Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa’s recent success.

It’s important to remember that metagames are different beasts in different tournament circuits, in various regions within a country, or even in different quadrants of the valley.  I remembered the beatdown from February, and wanted to bring the REB back to the side.  If I can shuffle off a stray red card when I don’t need it, what red card would I like to have when I DO need it?  Blood Moon and Pyroclasm come to mind as often, if not more, than REB.  I opted to move Pyroclasm main in light of our local predisposition to playing fair decks.  I also increased my basic land count to ease my mana concerns against Blood Moon or Wasteland.

The Ides of March was our third (third time’s the charm?) event in our Legacy series.

The field (from my Miracle-tainted-lenses) broke down as:

  • 58% Fair (22/38)
  • 29% Lethal Combo (11/38)
  • 10.5% Giant Dude (4/38)
  • 2.5% Control (1/38)

Pyroclasm main was valuable; my first four rounds consisted of Esper Deathblade, OmniTell, and two BUG decks and I was able to dispatch Insectile Aberration and Deathrite Shaman.  However, it turns out that maindeck Red Elemental Blast would have been perhaps just as viable (4/4 opponents playing Islands!).  I was able to double-draw into Top 8 at 2nd, giving me an advantage of playing first.  I took game 1 versus my 4th round BUG adversary, lost game two, and steeled myself for a grindy game 3.  My opening hand included Ponder, Blood Moon, and 3 lands, but no countermagic.  Resolving Blood Moon here is very close to outright winning, and I decided to jam it.  I opened with a turn 1 Ponder, saw a Divert, and decided to leave Divert up vs. discard spells and try to land Blood Moon turn 3.  To my dismay, he turn 1 Inquisitions away my Blood Moon, the game continually drifts in his favor, and eventually ends my bid to win the tournament.

My takeaway; you can’t prepare to beat BUG, and Stone/Deathblade, and OmniTell, and Elves, and UWR Delver, and Death and Taxes, and Miracles, and Goblins, and Reanimator, etc. all with the same 75.  Strategies that are interact favorably against multiple other decks tend to have a theoretical edge.  It’s cliche, but piloting a deck you’re experienced with seems to be the right call.  Knowing how to pull out of a losing boardstate or recognizing and preventing it from assembling would seem crucial.

Also, it seems players have made adjustments in anticipation of True-Name Nemesis and other 1-toughness creatures (Elves, Goblins, Death and Taxes) with Zealous Persecutions seeing additional play in March.  The 24 Top 8 performances (sorted by most appearances, then quantity of unique pilots):

  • 3 [Stone/Death]Blade (3 players)
  • 3 BUG (2 Delver, 1 not) (2 players/3 lists)
  • 2 Elves (2 players)
  • 2 UWR Delver (2 players)
  • 2 Death and Taxes (1 player/2 lists)
  • 2 Junk Depths (1 player/2 lists)
  • 2 Miracles (1 player/2 lists)
  • 1 Affinity
  • 1 Infect
  • 1 Merfolk
  • 1 OmniTell
  • 1 Punishing Jund
  • 1 Reanimator
  • 1 Sneak and Show
  • 1 Tin Fins

Observations:

  • No one has top 8’d twice with the same exact list.
  • Dredge has been at each event with no Top 8 appearances, though Reanimator, Tin Fins, and (twice) Junk Depths have. I take from this that the general metagame is including some graveyard hate, but perhaps just on the shy end of adequate.
  • Zealous Persecution never looked so good.
  • If your situation allows for it, consider moving a sideboard card that is flexible in a number of your matchups into the main 60.  Above that, if you can add a card that helps a rough matchup and remove a card that doesn’t damage your chances much in your favorable matchups, it may be worth it.  Not exactly super-secret advice, but when considering card choices AND our local metagame, knowing you’re more likely than not to be shuffling across the table from a fair deck may allow for some advantages.  More than once did I feel minutely “pre-sideboarded” with Pyroclasm in my starting 60.

As Legacy is an Eternal format, it has criticisms lobbied against it for being slow to change.  While a deck may fundamentally stay the same, it appears as though there is still plenty of room for new tricks
and adjustments from month to month.  Assuming a player is sticking with one single deck (for one reason or another), it is still possibility to predict, tune, and react to our local meta.  Keep it spicy!